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China Water Affairs Group Limited (0855.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.21 - $214.94$108.07
Multi-Stage$32.54 - $35.63$34.06
Blended Fair Value$71.06
Current Price$6.70
Upside960.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.02%18.29%0.280.340.180.320.300.290.270.230.080.07
YoY Growth---17.65%88.89%-43.75%6.14%2.27%10.77%13.39%184.33%26.64%24.86%
Dividend Yield--4.18%6.77%2.81%3.73%4.74%5.07%3.26%2.94%1.61%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,782.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,012.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)770.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)356.46222.79133.67
Cash Retained (M)770.27770.27770.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-356.46-222.79-133.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)413.81547.48636.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$47.21$108.07$214.94
Upside / Downside604.60%1,512.97%3,108.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,782.311,878.351,979.572,086.252,198.672,317.152,386.66
Payout Ratio56.78%63.43%70.07%76.71%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,012.041,191.361,387.081,600.421,832.732,085.432,207.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)1,109.911,120.541,131.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,203.881,227.061,250.46
Year 3 PV (M)1,294.081,331.631,369.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,380.601,434.271,489.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,463.551,535.011,609.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,658.5948,936.6651,302.87
Equity Value (M)53,110.6055,585.1658,153.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
Fair Value$32.54$34.06$35.63
Upside / Downside385.70%408.33%431.82%

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