Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. (001318.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.29 - $4.88$4.05
Multi-Stage$6.15 - $6.76$6.45
Blended Fair Value$5.25
Current Price$13.76
Upside-61.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-21.47%0.00%0.160.150.000.540.340.540.310.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%3,211.61%-99.17%58.56%-36.07%70.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.25%0.03%3.98%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3014.568.74
Cash Retained (M)65.6065.6065.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.30-14.56-8.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.3151.0456.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.76282.76282.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.29$4.05$4.88
Upside / Downside-76.08%-70.57%-64.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.48115.32114.16113.02111.89110.77114.09
Payout Ratio43.68%52.94%62.21%71.47%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8861.0571.0280.7890.3499.69105.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)56.0656.6357.20
Year 2 PV (M)59.8761.1062.34
Year 3 PV (M)62.5364.4666.44
Year 4 PV (M)64.2166.8769.61
Year 5 PV (M)65.0668.4571.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,431.591,506.141,583.76
Equity Value (M)1,739.321,823.651,911.32
Shares Outstanding (M)282.76282.76282.76
Fair Value$6.15$6.45$6.76
Upside / Downside-55.30%-53.13%-50.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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