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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.81 - $580.19$511.83
Multi-Stage$74.46 - $81.42$77.88
Blended Fair Value$294.85
Current Price$16.31
Upside1,707.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.95%31.63%0.880.830.580.340.320.130.250.370.210.07
YoY Growth--6.80%42.48%69.69%5.25%143.69%-46.94%-32.24%76.27%185.47%30.31%
Dividend Yield--5.12%6.08%4.68%2.76%2.76%1.54%2.24%2.89%2.16%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,199.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,588.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,611.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,639.801,649.88989.93
Cash Retained (M)6,611.006,611.006,611.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,639.80-1,649.88-989.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,971.204,961.135,621.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,524.294,524.294,524.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.101.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.461.461.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.101.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.552.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.81$511.83$580.19
Upside / Downside885.96%3,038.15%3,457.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,199.0014,056.9414,970.6415,943.7316,980.0718,083.7718,626.29
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.97%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,588.008,143.229,872.7911,792.8013,920.7016,275.4017,229.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,536.847,608.277,679.71
Year 2 PV (M)8,457.188,618.268,780.87
Year 3 PV (M)9,349.649,618.049,891.52
Year 4 PV (M)10,214.8410,607.6711,011.73
Year 5 PV (M)11,053.3711,587.2512,141.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)290,269.77304,289.90318,846.63
Equity Value (M)336,881.63352,329.40368,352.02
Shares Outstanding (M)4,524.294,524.294,524.29
Fair Value$74.46$77.88$81.42
Upside / Downside356.53%377.47%399.18%

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