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Matador Resources Company (MTDR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$146.61 - $388.93$224.19
Multi-Stage$99.73 - $109.00$104.28
Blended Fair Value$164.23
Current Price$44.93
Upside265.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.840.620.280.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--35.89%118.96%141.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.92%0.59%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)781.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)633.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.2497.6558.59
Cash Retained (M)633.12633.12633.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.24-97.65-58.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)476.88535.47574.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.005.475.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$146.61$224.19$388.93
Upside / Downside226.32%398.97%765.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)781.21831.99886.06943.661,005.001,070.321,102.43
Payout Ratio18.96%33.17%47.37%61.58%75.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.09275.93419.76581.13761.70963.291,019.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)250.54252.92255.29
Year 2 PV (M)346.08352.67359.33
Year 3 PV (M)435.04447.53460.26
Year 4 PV (M)517.76537.67558.15
Year 5 PV (M)594.55623.26653.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,321.3410,819.8611,337.47
Equity Value (M)12,465.3113,033.9213,623.58
Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
Fair Value$99.73$104.28$109.00
Upside / Downside121.97%132.10%142.60%

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