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San-Ai Obbli Co., Ltd. (8097.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,364.11 - $2,302.19$1,774.09
Multi-Stage$2,679.17 - $2,939.63$2,806.90
Blended Fair Value$2,290.50
Current Price$1,815.00
Upside26.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS26.72%19.60%101.7269.7749.2130.7831.1331.1331.3626.9722.0023.05
YoY Growth--45.78%41.79%59.87%-1.13%0.00%-0.71%16.25%22.61%-4.56%35.65%
Dividend Yield--5.60%3.29%3.24%3.20%2.42%3.20%2.90%1.97%1.92%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,116.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,282.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)834.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,423.20889.50533.70
Cash Retained (M)834.00834.00834.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,423.20-889.50-533.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-589.20-55.50300.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-9.39-0.884.79
LTM Dividend per Share100.14100.14100.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share-9.39-0.884.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend90.7599.26104.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$1,364.11$1,774.09$2,302.19
Upside / Downside-24.84%-2.25%26.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,116.007,174.677,233.827,293.467,353.597,414.227,636.64
Payout Ratio88.28%88.62%88.97%89.31%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,282.006,358.476,435.786,513.936,592.936,672.797,063.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)5,913.115,972.346,031.58
Year 2 PV (M)5,565.795,677.865,791.05
Year 3 PV (M)5,238.805,397.825,560.03
Year 4 PV (M)4,930.945,131.515,338.14
Year 5 PV (M)4,641.114,878.275,125.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)141,778.40149,023.49156,561.80
Equity Value (M)168,068.13176,081.30184,407.63
Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
Fair Value$2,679.17$2,806.90$2,939.63
Upside / Downside47.61%54.65%61.96%

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