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Thales S.A. (0IW5.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.58 - $382.05$257.05
Multi-Stage$216.78 - $237.23$226.82
Blended Fair Value$241.94
Current Price$249.60
Upside-3.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.87%11.30%3.433.072.732.020.412.241.851.691.441.13
YoY Growth--11.79%12.48%35.11%390.01%-81.62%21.20%9.52%17.55%26.84%-3.62%
Dividend Yield--2.47%2.29%2.29%2.70%0.55%2.42%1.81%1.85%1.56%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,075.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,459.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)615.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)415.08259.43155.66
Cash Retained (M)615.80615.80615.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-415.08-259.43-155.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.72356.38460.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.53206.53206.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.732.23
LTM Dividend per Share7.077.077.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.732.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.048.799.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$181.58$257.05$382.05
Upside / Downside-27.25%2.99%53.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,075.402,152.612,232.702,315.762,401.922,491.282,566.02
Payout Ratio70.33%74.26%78.20%82.13%86.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,459.601,598.591,745.911,901.972,067.232,242.152,373.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)1,475.911,490.281,504.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,488.211,517.321,546.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,496.811,540.951,585.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,502.011,561.361,622.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,504.081,578.731,656.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,303.9439,155.4441,079.74
Equity Value (M)44,770.9746,844.1048,995.84
Shares Outstanding (M)206.53206.53206.53
Fair Value$216.78$226.82$237.23
Upside / Downside-13.15%-9.13%-4.95%

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