Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Uni-President China Holdings Ltd (0220.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.30 - $179.29$85.15
Multi-Stage$25.84 - $28.24$27.02
Blended Fair Value$56.09
Current Price$8.67
Upside546.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.33%26.17%0.430.340.420.380.320.240.140.030.040.01
YoY Growth--27.28%-18.61%11.41%18.50%30.79%68.99%416.88%-28.72%194.32%-68.82%
Dividend Yield--5.91%6.76%6.06%6.10%4.77%3.32%2.40%0.51%0.79%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,926.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,723.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)785.26490.78294.47
Cash Retained (M)202.94202.94202.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-785.26-490.78-294.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-582.31-287.84-91.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,319.334,319.334,319.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.07-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.07-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$38.30$85.15$179.29
Upside / Downside341.70%882.11%1,967.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,926.284,146.724,379.544,625.434,885.135,159.405,314.18
Payout Ratio94.83%93.86%92.90%91.93%90.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,723.333,892.314,068.534,252.274,443.814,643.464,915.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)3,616.723,651.293,685.86
Year 2 PV (M)3,512.783,580.263,648.38
Year 3 PV (M)3,411.473,510.243,610.89
Year 4 PV (M)3,312.713,441.203,573.39
Year 5 PV (M)3,216.443,373.143,535.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,554.1999,160.59103,944.79
Equity Value (M)111,624.31116,716.71121,999.20
Shares Outstanding (M)4,319.334,319.334,319.33
Fair Value$25.84$27.02$28.24
Upside / Downside198.07%211.67%225.78%

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