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PTT Public Company Limited (PTT-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.90 - $49.56$38.59
Multi-Stage$56.19 - $61.65$58.87
Blended Fair Value$48.73
Current Price$33.25
Upside46.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.22%1.82%2.892.193.022.751.812.862.992.591.571.54
YoY Growth--31.85%-27.41%9.50%52.00%-36.54%-4.33%15.17%65.58%1.78%-36.20%
Dividend Yield--9.02%6.49%9.58%7.16%4.42%9.29%6.22%4.70%4.05%5.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,943.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58,113.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,829.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,788.659,242.915,545.74
Cash Retained (M)15,829.5115,829.5115,829.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,788.65-9,242.91-5,545.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,040.866,586.6010,283.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,482.4728,482.4728,482.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.230.36
LTM Dividend per Share2.042.042.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.230.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.082.272.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$29.90$38.59$49.56
Upside / Downside-10.08%16.08%49.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,943.2574,548.2675,158.2375,773.1976,393.1877,018.2579,328.79
Payout Ratio78.59%80.87%83.16%85.44%87.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58,113.7460,290.0762,498.1464,738.3067,010.9369,316.4273,379.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)55,916.5456,476.7257,036.90
Year 2 PV (M)53,759.5954,842.1355,935.47
Year 3 PV (M)51,646.9453,214.7754,814.01
Year 4 PV (M)49,581.9351,598.8753,676.74
Year 5 PV (M)47,567.2849,998.2052,527.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,342,060.961,410,646.731,482,008.32
Equity Value (M)1,600,533.231,676,777.421,755,998.94
Shares Outstanding (M)28,482.4728,482.4728,482.47
Fair Value$56.19$58.87$61.65
Upside / Downside69.00%77.05%85.42%

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