Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.18 - $143.73$122.15
Multi-Stage$151.40 - $166.37$158.74
Blended Fair Value$140.44
Current Price$246.00
Upside-42.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%2.001.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29,707.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,900.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,807.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,941.483,713.422,228.05
Cash Retained (M)25,807.3825,807.3825,807.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,941.48-3,713.42-2,228.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,865.9122,093.9623,579.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.001,950.001,950.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.1911.3312.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.1911.3312.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1913.3314.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$101.18$122.15$143.73
Upside / Downside-58.87%-50.35%-41.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29,707.3829,410.3129,116.2128,825.0528,536.7928,251.4329,098.97
Payout Ratio13.13%28.50%43.88%59.25%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,900.008,382.6612,775.2717,079.1921,295.7625,426.2826,916.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,557.087,634.197,711.30
Year 2 PV (M)10,382.8010,595.7710,810.91
Year 3 PV (M)12,513.6512,900.6413,295.53
Year 4 PV (M)14,066.3714,649.3515,250.27
Year 5 PV (M)15,140.6315,929.0416,749.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)235,563.31247,829.64260,601.71
Equity Value (M)295,223.83309,538.63324,419.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.001,950.001,950.00
Fair Value$151.40$158.74$166.37
Upside / Downside-38.46%-35.47%-32.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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