Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

TQM Alpha Public Company Limited (TQM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.18 - $84.86	$48.05
Multi-Stage	$22.69 - $24.71	$23.68
Blended Fair Value	$35.86
Current Price	$14.70
Upside	143.98%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.81%	0.00%	1.08	1.15	1.34	1.37	1.05	0.48	0.53	0.38	0.68	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.19%	-14.25%	-2.08%	30.34%	121.05%	-10.17%	41.00%	-45.00%	686.73%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.19%	4.30%	4.06%	3.42%	1.71%	1.41%	3.28%	3.26%	5.93%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	781.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	646.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	134.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	156.35	97.72	58.63
Cash Retained (M)	134.96	134.96	134.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-156.35	-97.72	-58.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-21.40	37.23	76.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	599.95	599.95	599.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.06	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	1.08	1.08	1.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.06	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.04	1.14	1.21
WACC / Discount Rate	9.00%	9.00%	9.00%
Growth Rate	5.48%	6.48%	7.48%
Fair Value	$31.18	$48.05	$84.86
Upside / Downside	112.10%	226.87%	477.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	781.77	832.40	886.32	943.72	1,004.84	1,069.93	1,102.02
Payout Ratio	82.74%	84.19%	85.64%	87.09%	88.55%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	646.81	700.80	759.06	821.93	889.76	962.93	1,019.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.00%	9.00%	9.00%
Growth Rate	5.48%	6.48%	7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)	636.88	642.91	648.95
Year 2 PV (M)	626.90	638.85	650.90
Year 3 PV (M)	616.91	634.62	652.67
Year 4 PV (M)	606.91	630.25	654.26
Year 5 PV (M)	596.91	625.74	655.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,525.53	11,034.03	11,561.99
Equity Value (M)	13,610.03	14,206.41	14,824.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	599.95	599.95	599.95
Fair Value	$22.69	$23.68	$24.71
Upside / Downside	54.32%	61.09%	68.09%

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