Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (TFG-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$78.01 - $315.69	$206.19
Multi-Stage	$38.43 - $42.02	$40.19
Blended Fair Value	$123.19
Current Price	$5.05
Upside	2,339.40%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.44%	-7.53%	0.11	0.40	0.18	0.13	0.29	0.10	0.14	0.06	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-72.75%	129.10%	34.36%	-54.35%	180.48%	-25.06%	140.18%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.43%	11.94%	3.34%	3.15%	5.29%	3.26%	4.53%	1.20%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,170.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,053.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,117.19

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,434.11	896.32	537.79
Cash Retained (M)	4,117.19	4,117.19	4,117.19
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,434.11	-896.32	-537.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,683.08	3,220.87	3,579.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,517.24	4,517.24	4,517.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.71	0.79
LTM Dividend per Share	0.68	0.68	0.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.71	0.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.27	1.39	1.47
WACC / Discount Rate	7.22%	7.22%	7.22%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$78.01	$206.19	$315.69
Upside / Downside	1,444.73%	3,982.93%	6,151.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,170.53	7,636.61	8,132.99	8,661.63	9,224.64	9,824.24	10,118.97
Payout Ratio	42.58%	52.07%	61.55%	71.03%	80.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,053.34	3,976.03	5,005.78	6,152.59	7,427.34	8,841.82	9,360.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.22%	7.22%	7.22%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,673.56	3,708.38	3,743.20
Year 2 PV (M)	4,273.14	4,354.53	4,436.69
Year 3 PV (M)	4,852.56	4,991.86	5,133.80
Year 4 PV (M)	5,412.32	5,620.46	5,834.55
Year 5 PV (M)	5,952.91	6,240.43	6,538.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	149,423.50	156,640.71	164,134.14
Equity Value (M)	173,587.99	181,556.38	189,821.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,517.24	4,517.24	4,517.24
Fair Value	$38.43	$40.19	$42.02
Upside / Downside	660.95%	695.88%	732.11%

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