Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Metcash Limited (MTS.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.07 - $99.01	$46.68
Multi-Stage	$12.31 - $13.46	$12.87
Blended Fair Value	$29.78
Current Price	$3.81
Upside	681.61%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	7.16%	11.51%	0.15	0.14	0.20	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.12	0.10	0.00	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	13.37%	-32.18%	9.42%	33.85%	25.47%	-8.23%	22.32%	7,421.43%	-75.86%	-89.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.78%	3.45%	5.14%	3.82%	3.85%	4.38%	4.14%	2.70%	0.06%	0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	541.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	346.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	194.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	108.34	67.71	40.63
Cash Retained (M)	194.90	194.90	194.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-108.34	-67.71	-40.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	86.56	127.19	154.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,084.56	1,084.56	1,084.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.12	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.12	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	5.16%	6.16%	7.16%
Fair Value	$21.07	$46.68	$99.01
Upside / Downside	453.14%	1,125.31%	2,498.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	541.70	575.05	610.46	648.04	687.94	730.29	752.20
Payout Ratio	64.02%	69.22%	74.41%	79.61%	84.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	346.80	398.03	454.26	515.89	583.40	657.27	695.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	5.16%	6.16%	7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)	367.97	371.47	374.97
Year 2 PV (M)	388.23	395.65	403.14
Year 3 PV (M)	407.61	419.35	431.31
Year 4 PV (M)	426.14	442.58	459.49
Year 5 PV (M)	443.83	465.34	487.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,319.87	11,868.44	12,438.08
Equity Value (M)	13,353.65	13,962.83	14,594.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,084.56	1,084.56	1,084.56
Fair Value	$12.31	$12.87	$13.46
Upside / Downside	223.16%	237.91%	253.20%

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