Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.14 - $10.36	$8.70
Multi-Stage	$12.98 - $14.20	$13.58
Blended Fair Value	$11.14
Current Price	$19.44
Upside	-42.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.47%	0.00%	0.90	0.90	0.89	0.97	1.22	1.03	0.18	0.07	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.51%	0.59%	-8.14%	-20.09%	18.92%	473.43%	172.75%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.03%	6.36%	8.53%	8.96%	13.50%	48.81%	1.25%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	472.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	440.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	32.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	94.48	59.05	35.43
Cash Retained (M)	32.22	32.22	32.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-94.48	-59.05	-35.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-62.26	-26.83	-3.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	483.69	483.69	483.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.91	0.91	0.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.78	0.85	0.90
WACC / Discount Rate	8.72%	8.72%	8.72%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$7.14	$8.70	$10.36
Upside / Downside	-63.26%	-55.23%	-46.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	472.42	467.70	463.02	458.39	453.81	449.27	462.75
Payout Ratio	93.18%	92.54%	91.91%	91.27%	90.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	440.20	432.83	425.55	418.38	411.31	404.34	428.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.72%	8.72%	8.72%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	394.09	398.11	402.13
Year 2 PV (M)	352.78	360.02	367.33
Year 3 PV (M)	315.80	325.56	335.53
Year 4 PV (M)	282.67	294.39	306.46
Year 5 PV (M)	253.01	266.19	279.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,681.81	4,925.60	5,179.45
Equity Value (M)	6,280.16	6,569.87	6,870.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	483.69	483.69	483.69
Fair Value	$12.98	$13.58	$14.20
Upside / Downside	-33.21%	-30.13%	-26.93%

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