Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ADT Inc. (ADT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.64 - $10.33	$8.35
Multi-Stage	$15.36 - $16.93	$16.13
Blended Fair Value	$12.24
Current Price	$8.71
Upside	40.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-20.24%	0.00%	0.20	0.14	0.14	0.13	0.12	0.62	0.09	0.82	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	41.75%	1.15%	9.26%	6.42%	-80.64%	610.94%	-89.41%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.45%	2.17%	1.92%	1.68%	1.42%	14.31%	1.33%	10.35%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	640.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	191.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	448.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	128.11	80.07	48.04
Cash Retained (M)	448.71	448.71	448.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-128.11	-80.07	-48.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	320.59	368.64	400.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	913.55	913.55	913.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.44
LTM Dividend per Share	0.21	0.21	0.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.65
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$6.64	$8.35	$10.33
Upside / Downside	-23.75%	-4.17%	18.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	640.56	634.15	627.81	621.53	615.32	609.16	627.44
Payout Ratio	29.95%	41.96%	53.97%	65.98%	77.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	191.85	266.09	338.83	410.09	479.89	548.25	580.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	247.85	250.38	252.91
Year 2 PV (M)	293.96	299.99	306.08
Year 3 PV (M)	331.39	341.64	352.09
Year 4 PV (M)	361.20	376.17	391.60
Year 5 PV (M)	384.36	404.38	425.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,417.46	13,064.07	13,737.33
Equity Value (M)	14,036.22	14,736.62	15,465.23
Shares Outstanding (M)	913.55	913.55	913.55
Fair Value	$15.36	$16.13	$16.93
Upside / Downside	76.40%	85.20%	94.36%

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