Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sunshine Insurance Group Company Limited (6963.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.31 - $9.20	$7.71
Multi-Stage	$11.00 - $12.08	$11.53
Blended Fair Value	$9.62
Current Price	$2.96
Upside	224.92%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	20.38%	0.00%	0.17	0.18	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.23%	18.56%	12.89%	286.96%	-48.48%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.52%	4.47%	3.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,681.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,064.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,617.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,936.20	1,210.13	726.08
Cash Retained (M)	5,617.00	5,617.00	5,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,936.20	-1,210.13	-726.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,680.80	4,406.88	4,890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,502.00	11,502.00	11,502.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.38	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.38	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.67	0.74	0.78
WACC / Discount Rate	8.46%	8.46%	8.46%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$6.31	$7.71	$9.20
Upside / Downside	113.08%	160.32%	210.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,681.00	9,584.19	9,488.35	9,393.46	9,299.53	9,206.53	9,482.73
Payout Ratio	41.98%	51.58%	61.19%	70.79%	80.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,064.00	4,943.84	5,805.68	6,649.79	7,476.43	8,285.88	8,771.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.46%	8.46%	8.46%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,512.09	4,558.13	4,604.17
Year 2 PV (M)	4,835.92	4,935.11	5,035.32
Year 3 PV (M)	5,055.29	5,211.63	5,371.16
Year 4 PV (M)	5,187.36	5,402.35	5,623.95
Year 5 PV (M)	5,246.90	5,520.12	5,804.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	101,690.38	106,985.64	112,499.22
Equity Value (M)	126,527.94	132,612.98	138,938.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,502.00	11,502.00	11,502.00
Fair Value	$11.00	$11.53	$12.08
Upside / Downside	271.64%	289.51%	308.09%

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