Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China PengFei Group Limited (3348.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.46 - $3.48	$2.97
Multi-Stage	$3.81 - $4.17	$3.99
Blended Fair Value	$3.48
Current Price	$0.93
Upside	273.66%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	17.33%	0.00%	0.09	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.37	0.03	0.03	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	15.81%	12.12%	-17.50%	60.00%	29.74%	-89.58%	1,161.23%	12.39%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.24%	7.93%	7.12%	9.73%	5.08%	4.15%	35.55%	2.96%	2.44%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	188.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	79.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	108.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.64	23.53	14.12
Cash Retained (M)	108.36	108.36	108.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.64	-23.53	-14.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)	70.72	84.84	94.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	500.00	500.00	500.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.17	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.17	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.46	$2.97	$3.48
Upside / Downside	164.49%	218.82%	274.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	188.21	186.33	184.47	182.62	180.80	178.99	184.36
Payout Ratio	42.43%	51.94%	61.46%	70.97%	80.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	79.85	96.78	113.37	129.61	145.52	161.09	170.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	87.10	87.99	88.88
Year 2 PV (M)	91.82	93.70	95.61
Year 3 PV (M)	94.48	97.40	100.38
Year 4 PV (M)	95.46	99.42	103.49
Year 5 PV (M)	95.11	100.06	105.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,439.89	1,514.87	1,592.94
Equity Value (M)	1,903.86	1,993.44	2,086.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	500.00	500.00	500.00
Fair Value	$3.81	$3.99	$4.17
Upside / Downside	309.24%	328.49%	348.50%

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