Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Conch Material Technology Co Ltd (2560.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.44 - $6.72	$5.51
Multi-Stage	$9.16 - $10.08	$9.61
Blended Fair Value	$7.56
Current Price	$1.55
Upside	387.78%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.06	0.04	0.09	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	27.15%	-52.50%	62.29%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	3.89%	2.76%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	277.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	138.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	139.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	55.48	34.68	20.81
Cash Retained (M)	139.28	139.28	139.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-55.48	-34.68	-20.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	83.80	104.61	118.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	540.59	540.59	540.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.41	0.45	0.47
WACC / Discount Rate	7.07%	7.07%	7.07%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.44	$5.51	$6.72
Upside / Downside	186.29%	255.54%	333.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	277.40	274.63	271.88	269.16	266.47	263.81	271.72
Payout Ratio	49.79%	57.83%	65.87%	73.92%	81.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	138.12	158.82	179.10	198.95	218.39	237.43	251.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.07%	7.07%	7.07%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	146.84	148.34	149.84
Year 2 PV (M)	153.10	156.24	159.41
Year 3 PV (M)	157.24	162.11	167.07
Year 4 PV (M)	159.59	166.20	173.02
Year 5 PV (M)	160.41	168.76	177.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,176.13	4,393.59	4,620.02
Equity Value (M)	4,953.30	5,195.23	5,446.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	540.59	540.59	540.59
Fair Value	$9.16	$9.61	$10.08
Upside / Downside	491.14%	520.02%	550.04%

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