Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company

Ticker

Industry

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China Lilang Limited (1234.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.97 - $8.70	$7.29
Multi-Stage	$10.73 - $11.76	$11.23
Blended Fair Value	$9.26
Current Price	$3.41
Upside	171.61%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.22%	0.83%	0.33	0.29	0.28	0.37	0.44	0.51	0.41	0.35	0.36	0.35
YoY Growth	-	-	14.25%	2.24%	-23.64%	-14.34%	-14.77%	23.65%	17.64%	-2.48%	4.30%	12.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.16%	7.62%	8.57%	10.50%	9.78%	8.99%	7.13%	6.67%	9.21%	7.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	963.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	641.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	321.69

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	192.66	120.41	72.25
Cash Retained (M)	321.69	321.69	321.69
(-) Cash Required (M)	-192.66	-120.41	-72.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	129.03	201.28	249.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,197.49	1,197.49	1,197.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.17	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.54	0.54	0.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.17	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.64	0.70	0.74
WACC / Discount Rate	8.51%	8.51%	8.51%
Growth Rate	-2.05%	-1.05%	-0.05%
Fair Value	$5.97	$7.29	$8.70
Upside / Downside	75.17%	113.80%	155.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	963.29	953.21	943.23	933.36	923.60	913.93	941.35
Payout Ratio	66.61%	71.28%	75.96%	80.64%	85.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	641.60	679.49	716.51	752.68	788.02	822.54	870.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.51%	8.51%	8.51%
Growth Rate	-2.05%	-1.05%	-0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)	619.89	626.22	632.54
Year 2 PV (M)	596.33	608.57	620.93
Year 3 PV (M)	571.49	589.17	607.21
Year 4 PV (M)	545.84	568.47	591.80
Year 5 PV (M)	519.77	546.85	575.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,991.70	10,512.24	11,054.26
Equity Value (M)	12,845.01	13,451.51	14,081.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,197.49	1,197.49	1,197.49
Fair Value	$10.73	$11.23	$11.76
Upside / Downside	214.56%	229.42%	244.85%

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