Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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CTF Services Limited (0659.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.65 - $16.24	$13.27
Multi-Stage	$23.30 - $25.59	$24.42
Blended Fair Value	$18.84
Current Price	$7.46
Upside	152.61%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.62	0.59	0.58	0.57	0.57	0.73	1.39	0.49	0.45
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	4.26%	1.64%	3.45%	0.00%	-22.51%	-47.44%	186.03%	7.16%	30.24%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	8.94%	6.69%	7.85%	6.84%	8.45%	4.46%	10.22%	3.16%	3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,813.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,666.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,146.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	962.62	601.64	360.98
Cash Retained (M)	1,146.50	1,146.50	1,146.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-962.62	-601.64	-360.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	183.88	544.86	785.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,012.89	4,012.89	4,012.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.14	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.91	0.91	0.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.14	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.96	1.05	1.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$10.65	$13.27	$16.24
Upside / Downside	42.74%	77.85%	117.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,813.10	4,764.97	4,717.32	4,670.15	4,623.44	4,577.21	4,714.53
Payout Ratio	76.18%	78.94%	81.71%	84.47%	87.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,666.60	3,761.64	3,854.42	3,944.96	4,033.30	4,119.49	4,360.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,485.55	3,521.12	3,556.69
Year 2 PV (M)	3,309.38	3,377.26	3,445.84
Year 3 PV (M)	3,138.52	3,235.58	3,334.62
Year 4 PV (M)	2,973.29	3,096.52	3,223.54
Year 5 PV (M)	2,813.94	2,960.46	3,113.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	77,759.68	81,808.81	86,024.89
Equity Value (M)	93,480.37	97,999.76	102,698.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,012.89	4,012.89	4,012.89
Fair Value	$23.30	$24.42	$25.59
Upside / Downside	212.27%	227.36%	243.06%

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