Definitive Analysis

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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited (0098.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$130.87 - $752.77	$239.86
Multi-Stage	$77.75 - $85.00	$81.31
Blended Fair Value	$160.58
Current Price	$7.40
Upside	2,070.01%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.30%	30.93%	0.58	0.34	0.68	0.29	0.25	0.17	0.17	0.00	0.08	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	74.15%	-50.58%	130.86%	15.65%	45.52%	4.23%	0.00%	-100.00%	5.78%	81.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.89%	6.01%	8.83%	4.91%	4.14%	2.38%	3.93%	0.00%	2.48%	3.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,640.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	491.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,149.34

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	328.10	205.06	123.04
Cash Retained (M)	1,149.34	1,149.34	1,149.34
(-) Cash Required (M)	-328.10	-205.06	-123.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	821.25	944.28	1,026.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	420.65	420.65	420.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.95	2.24	2.44
LTM Dividend per Share	1.17	1.17	1.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.95	2.24	2.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.12	3.41	3.61
WACC / Discount Rate	8.02%	8.02%	8.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$130.87	$239.86	$752.77
Upside / Downside	1,668.47%	3,141.30%	10,072.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,640.48	1,747.12	1,860.68	1,981.62	2,110.43	2,247.61	2,315.03
Payout Ratio	29.94%	41.95%	53.96%	65.98%	77.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	491.14	732.93	1,004.08	1,307.38	1,645.87	2,022.84	2,141.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.02%	8.02%	8.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	672.17	678.55	684.92
Year 2 PV (M)	844.51	860.60	876.83
Year 3 PV (M)	1,008.46	1,037.41	1,066.91
Year 4 PV (M)	1,164.31	1,209.09	1,255.14
Year 5 PV (M)	1,312.36	1,375.75	1,441.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	27,701.61	29,039.61	30,428.81
Equity Value (M)	32,703.43	34,200.99	35,754.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	420.65	420.65	420.65
Fair Value	$77.75	$81.31	$85.00
Upside / Downside	950.61%	998.72%	1,048.62%

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