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Urban Edge Properties (UE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.12 - $12.39$10.12
Multi-Stage$12.17 - $13.30$12.72
Blended Fair Value$11.42
Current Price$20.47
Upside-44.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.82%0.00%0.650.590.590.980.210.840.790.750.640.62
YoY Growth--10.27%0.12%-39.44%365.34%-74.90%5.90%5.10%17.41%2.62%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.44%3.50%3.94%5.12%1.27%9.51%4.15%3.60%2.44%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.6114.138.48
Cash Retained (M)20.0920.0920.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.61-14.13-8.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.525.9611.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.72126.72126.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.050.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.050.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$8.12$10.12$12.39
Upside / Downside-60.32%-50.55%-39.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.04114.49115.97117.46118.97120.50124.12
Payout Ratio82.23%83.78%85.34%86.89%88.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.9595.9398.96102.06105.23108.45114.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)87.0687.9388.79
Year 2 PV (M)81.5183.1584.80
Year 3 PV (M)76.2978.6080.95
Year 4 PV (M)71.3974.2877.25
Year 5 PV (M)66.7870.1773.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,159.221,218.181,279.52
Equity Value (M)1,542.251,612.301,685.02
Shares Outstanding (M)126.72126.72126.72
Fair Value$12.17$12.72$13.30
Upside / Downside-40.54%-37.84%-35.04%

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