Definitive Analysis
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First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.23 - $73.74$45.01
Multi-Stage$22.40 - $24.46$23.41
Blended Fair Value$34.21
Current Price$17.05
Upside100.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.95%7.23%0.510.490.430.420.420.380.340.300.240.24
YoY Growth--3.52%13.99%2.22%1.46%9.11%13.04%14.21%22.51%-0.73%-4.15%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.61%3.48%2.79%2.90%4.18%2.62%2.09%1.82%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.6617.9110.75
Cash Retained (M)88.5688.5688.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.66-17.91-10.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.9070.6577.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.13103.13103.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Fair Value$30.23$45.01$73.74
Upside / Downside77.31%164.02%332.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.28152.20161.68171.75182.45193.82199.63
Payout Ratio38.19%48.55%58.91%69.28%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.7273.9095.25118.98145.30174.43184.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Year 1 PV (M)67.1067.7368.37
Year 2 PV (M)78.5380.0381.54
Year 3 PV (M)89.0791.6394.24
Year 4 PV (M)98.76102.57106.48
Year 5 PV (M)107.65112.86118.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,868.791,959.292,053.26
Equity Value (M)2,309.892,414.112,522.17
Shares Outstanding (M)103.13103.13103.13
Fair Value$22.40$23.41$24.46
Upside / Downside31.37%37.30%43.44%

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