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City Holding Company (CHCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.34 - $269.15$191.98
Multi-Stage$132.84 - $145.20$138.91
Blended Fair Value$165.44
Current Price$123.87
Upside33.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.11%5.91%2.992.752.522.482.522.442.031.861.771.74
YoY Growth--8.72%8.97%1.56%-1.46%3.17%20.16%9.08%5.45%1.64%3.34%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.66%2.77%3.15%3.08%3.67%2.63%2.72%2.74%3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5115.959.57
Cash Retained (M)81.3081.3081.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.51-15.95-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.7965.3571.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.5714.5714.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.834.494.92
LTM Dividend per Share3.183.183.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.834.494.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.017.668.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$140.34$191.98$269.15
Upside / Downside13.30%54.99%117.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.57133.83140.41147.30154.53162.12166.98
Payout Ratio36.27%47.02%57.76%68.51%79.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.2762.9281.10100.91122.47145.91154.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)57.1357.6858.23
Year 2 PV (M)66.8568.1469.44
Year 3 PV (M)75.5177.7179.96
Year 4 PV (M)83.2086.4589.80
Year 5 PV (M)89.9994.4198.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,562.241,638.881,718.49
Equity Value (M)1,934.922,023.262,114.90
Shares Outstanding (M)14.5714.5714.57
Fair Value$132.84$138.91$145.20
Upside / Downside7.24%12.14%17.22%

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