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BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.32 - $14.07$12.23
Multi-Stage$21.71 - $23.78$22.73
Blended Fair Value$17.48
Current Price$13.26
Upside31.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.91%-0.96%0.850.810.620.490.741.041.041.041.121.75
YoY Growth--5.45%31.15%25.68%-33.21%-29.45%0.13%-0.12%-6.72%-36.18%86.23%
Dividend Yield--6.77%6.50%4.93%5.18%10.35%8.77%9.96%7.23%7.74%13.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.976.864.12
Cash Retained (M)0.960.960.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.97-6.86-4.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.02-5.90-3.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.6826.6826.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.38-0.22-0.12
LTM Dividend per Share2.022.022.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.38-0.22-0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.651.801.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-5.91%-4.91%-3.91%
Fair Value$10.32$12.23$14.07
Upside / Downside-22.15%-7.80%6.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.8752.1849.6147.1744.8642.6543.93
Payout Ratio98.26%96.61%94.95%93.30%91.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.9250.4147.1144.0241.1138.3940.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-5.91%-4.91%-3.91%
Year 1 PV (M)45.7246.2146.70
Year 2 PV (M)38.7639.5940.43
Year 3 PV (M)32.8533.9134.99
Year 4 PV (M)27.8429.0430.28
Year 5 PV (M)23.5824.8626.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)410.52432.81456.05
Equity Value (M)579.28606.42634.64
Shares Outstanding (M)26.6826.6826.68
Fair Value$21.71$22.73$23.78
Upside / Downside63.71%71.38%79.36%

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