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AMETEK, Inc. (AME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$148.70 - $394.47$227.38
Multi-Stage$101.16 - $110.56$105.77
Blended Fair Value$166.58
Current Price$188.00
Upside-11.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.21%12.38%1.120.990.870.800.710.550.560.360.360.37
YoY Growth--12.35%13.93%9.52%11.85%29.44%-1.10%55.81%-0.64%-3.16%6.75%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.55%0.60%0.60%0.56%0.76%0.66%0.47%0.66%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,468.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)279.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,189.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)293.76183.60110.16
Cash Retained (M)1,189.711,189.711,189.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-293.76-183.60-110.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)895.951,006.111,079.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.874.344.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.874.344.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.075.555.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$148.70$227.38$394.47
Upside / Downside-20.90%20.95%109.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,468.801,564.271,665.951,774.231,889.562,012.382,072.75
Payout Ratio19.00%33.20%47.40%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)279.08519.35789.671,092.931,432.291,811.141,917.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)471.57476.04480.51
Year 2 PV (M)651.05663.45675.97
Year 3 PV (M)818.19841.67865.61
Year 4 PV (M)973.591,011.031,049.54
Year 5 PV (M)1,117.851,171.841,227.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,405.8220,343.1321,316.31
Equity Value (M)23,438.0624,507.1625,615.83
Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
Fair Value$101.16$105.77$110.56
Upside / Downside-46.19%-43.74%-41.19%

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