Definitive Analysis
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Bank of Guiyang Co.,Ltd. (601997.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.24 - $24.84$19.54
Multi-Stage$26.89 - $29.54$28.19
Blended Fair Value$23.86
Current Price$5.76
Upside314.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.51%26.16%0.901.020.991.061.191.330.970.750.260.09
YoY Growth---11.73%2.28%-6.66%-10.48%-10.25%37.15%29.68%186.64%189.69%2.16%
Dividend Yield--15.23%18.62%18.04%16.74%14.58%17.30%10.14%7.26%2.08%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,108.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,036.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,071.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,021.68638.55383.13
Cash Retained (M)3,071.983,071.983,071.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,021.68-638.55-383.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,050.302,433.432,688.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,693.643,693.643,693.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.660.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.660.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Fair Value$15.24$19.54$24.84
Upside / Downside164.66%239.21%331.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,108.395,148.695,189.295,230.225,271.485,313.055,472.44
Payout Ratio39.86%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,036.422,568.753,109.353,658.314,215.754,781.755,062.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Year 1 PV (M)2,376.192,400.002,423.81
Year 2 PV (M)2,660.652,714.242,768.37
Year 3 PV (M)2,895.742,983.673,073.36
Year 4 PV (M)3,086.823,212.433,341.83
Year 5 PV (M)3,238.793,404.363,576.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,053.1289,401.0693,925.01
Equity Value (M)99,311.31104,115.76109,109.02
Shares Outstanding (M)3,693.643,693.643,693.64
Fair Value$26.89$28.19$29.54
Upside / Downside366.79%389.37%412.84%

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