Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.94 - $138.58$104.32
Multi-Stage$102.17 - $111.93$106.96
Blended Fair Value$105.64
Current Price$66.21
Upside59.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.73%3.87%2.452.412.342.262.192.142.071.931.861.77
YoY Growth--1.56%2.82%3.55%3.37%2.36%3.38%7.26%3.85%4.69%5.95%
Dividend Yield--3.88%4.93%3.54%2.89%2.65%2.98%2.69%2.55%2.31%2.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9010.566.34
Cash Retained (M)48.8248.8248.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.90-10.56-6.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9238.2642.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.3214.3214.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.232.672.97
LTM Dividend per Share2.492.492.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.232.672.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.725.165.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Fair Value$78.94$104.32$138.58
Upside / Downside19.22%57.55%109.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.4886.9089.3991.9694.5997.31100.22
Payout Ratio42.22%51.77%61.33%70.89%80.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.6744.9954.8365.1976.0987.5792.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)41.2741.6842.08
Year 2 PV (M)46.1347.0447.96
Year 3 PV (M)50.3151.8153.34
Year 4 PV (M)53.8856.0258.23
Year 5 PV (M)56.8859.7262.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,215.001,275.821,339.05
Equity Value (M)1,463.471,532.101,603.35
Shares Outstanding (M)14.3214.3214.32
Fair Value$102.17$106.96$111.93
Upside / Downside54.30%61.54%69.05%

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