Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.28 - $161.44$108.20
Multi-Stage$57.25 - $62.44$59.80
Blended Fair Value$84.00
Current Price$26.23
Upside220.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.461.311.180.860.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.28%10.53%37.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.99%3.88%3.11%3.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2710.806.48
Cash Retained (M)53.5453.5453.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.27-10.80-6.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.2642.7447.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.1821.1821.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.712.022.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.551.551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.712.022.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.263.573.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.28$108.20$161.44
Upside / Downside190.80%312.52%515.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.3791.9997.96104.33111.11118.34121.89
Payout Ratio38.01%48.41%58.81%69.21%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.8344.5357.6172.2088.45106.50112.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.1040.4840.86
Year 2 PV (M)46.7147.6048.50
Year 3 PV (M)52.7254.2355.77
Year 4 PV (M)58.1560.3962.69
Year 5 PV (M)63.0566.1069.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)951.97997.951,045.69
Equity Value (M)1,212.701,266.751,322.77
Shares Outstanding (M)21.1821.1821.18
Fair Value$57.25$59.80$62.44
Upside / Downside118.24%127.97%138.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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