Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MotorCycle Holdings Limited (MTO.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.73 - $48.73$21.49
Multi-Stage$8.36 - $9.12$8.74
Blended Fair Value$15.11
Current Price$2.81
Upside437.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.150.150.150.180.130.000.050.080.040.00
YoY Growth--0.00%2.22%-20.21%46.66%0.00%-100.00%-35.72%119.26%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.34%14.15%10.12%8.84%4.53%0.00%4.65%2.56%1.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.434.022.41
Cash Retained (M)10.0110.0110.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.43-4.02-2.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.585.997.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.8073.8073.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.73$21.49$48.73
Upside / Downside352.92%664.80%1,634.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.1534.2436.4738.8441.3644.0545.37
Payout Ratio68.86%73.09%77.32%81.55%85.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.1425.0328.2031.6735.4839.6541.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.8723.0923.31
Year 2 PV (M)23.5524.0024.45
Year 3 PV (M)24.1824.8725.58
Year 4 PV (M)24.7525.7126.68
Year 5 PV (M)25.2826.5027.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)496.62520.60545.51
Equity Value (M)617.26644.78673.31
Shares Outstanding (M)73.8073.8073.80
Fair Value$8.36$8.74$9.12
Upside / Downside197.63%210.90%224.66%

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