Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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LCNB Corp. (LCNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.75 - $286.58$98.69
Multi-Stage$33.65 - $36.75$35.17
Blended Fair Value$66.93
Current Price$14.99
Upside346.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.24%8.05%0.870.710.650.690.670.640.550.430.430.42
YoY Growth--22.95%8.13%-5.44%2.88%4.65%16.15%27.68%0.66%2.25%4.95%
Dividend Yield--5.86%4.68%3.99%3.93%3.83%5.09%3.24%2.27%1.80%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.722.951.77
Cash Retained (M)11.0811.0811.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.72-2.95-1.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.368.139.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.0914.0914.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.580.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.580.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.461.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.75$98.69$286.58
Upside / Downside265.24%558.36%1,811.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.5825.1226.7528.4930.3432.3133.28
Payout Ratio53.03%60.42%67.82%75.21%82.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.5115.1818.1421.4325.0629.0830.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13.9114.0414.17
Year 2 PV (M)15.2415.5315.82
Year 3 PV (M)16.5016.9717.45
Year 4 PV (M)17.6918.3719.07
Year 5 PV (M)18.8119.7220.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)391.90410.83430.48
Equity Value (M)474.04495.45517.65
Shares Outstanding (M)14.0914.0914.09
Fair Value$33.65$35.17$36.75
Upside / Downside124.50%134.64%145.15%

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