Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. (FDBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.25 - $201.81$130.52
Multi-Stage$66.17 - $72.20$69.13
Blended Fair Value$99.82
Current Price$43.83
Upside127.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.99%15.54%1.531.171.341.140.930.700.590.510.530.49
YoY Growth--31.10%-12.44%16.66%22.87%33.22%18.84%15.00%-3.50%7.63%36.21%
Dividend Yield--3.68%2.49%2.92%2.47%1.51%1.37%0.99%1.04%1.93%2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.223.261.96
Cash Retained (M)16.7716.7716.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.22-3.26-1.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.5613.5114.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.775.775.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.002.342.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.002.342.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.25$130.52$201.81
Upside / Downside105.90%197.79%360.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.0927.7929.5931.5233.5735.7536.82
Payout Ratio35.71%46.57%57.43%68.28%79.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.3212.9417.0021.5226.5732.1734.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6811.7911.90
Year 2 PV (M)13.8514.1214.38
Year 3 PV (M)15.8416.2916.75
Year 4 PV (M)17.6518.3319.02
Year 5 PV (M)19.2920.2321.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)303.63318.29333.52
Equity Value (M)381.94399.04416.78
Shares Outstanding (M)5.775.775.77
Fair Value$66.17$69.13$72.20
Upside / Downside50.96%57.72%64.73%

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