Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dicker Data Limited (DDR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.31 - $179.26$123.69
Multi-Stage$22.98 - $25.07$24.01
Blended Fair Value$73.85
Current Price$8.07
Upside815.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.58%50.54%0.470.310.510.320.300.220.150.140.130.08
YoY Growth--47.96%-37.88%60.52%5.57%38.23%40.33%9.19%6.95%69.89%897.36%
Dividend Yield--5.53%2.63%4.97%2.12%2.86%3.13%5.46%4.75%5.83%4.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5320.3312.20
Cash Retained (M)5.325.325.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.53-20.33-12.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.20-15.01-6.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.43180.43180.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.08-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.08-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.31$123.69$179.26
Upside / Downside461.44%1,432.74%2,121.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.63173.21184.46196.45209.22222.82229.51
Payout Ratio96.73%95.38%94.04%92.69%91.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.31165.21173.46182.09191.12200.54212.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)152.69154.14155.59
Year 2 PV (M)148.18151.00153.85
Year 3 PV (M)143.77147.90152.11
Year 4 PV (M)139.47144.83150.35
Year 5 PV (M)135.26141.79148.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,426.273,591.763,763.58
Equity Value (M)4,145.644,331.434,524.05
Shares Outstanding (M)180.43180.43180.43
Fair Value$22.98$24.01$25.07
Upside / Downside184.72%197.48%210.70%

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