Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CPH Chemie + Papier Holding AG (CPHN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.10 - $57.64$49.32
Multi-Stage$72.98 - $79.78$76.32
Blended Fair Value$62.82
Current Price$74.00
Upside-15.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.32%19.93%4.004.501.301.800.001.800.650.650.600.65
YoY Growth---11.11%246.15%-27.76%67,387.50%-99.85%176.94%0.00%8.37%-7.70%-0.05%
Dividend Yield--5.45%5.29%1.67%2.95%0.00%2.27%0.78%1.21%1.50%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.015.013.01
Cash Retained (M)4.074.074.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.01-5.01-3.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.94-0.941.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.006.006.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.345.846.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Fair Value$41.10$49.32$57.64
Upside / Downside-44.47%-33.35%-22.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.0739.2938.5237.7737.0336.3137.40
Payout Ratio89.84%89.87%89.91%89.94%89.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0035.3134.6333.9733.3232.6834.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)31.8732.2032.53
Year 2 PV (M)28.2228.8029.39
Year 3 PV (M)24.9825.7626.56
Year 4 PV (M)22.1223.0424.00
Year 5 PV (M)19.5820.6121.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)311.42327.80344.86
Equity Value (M)438.19458.22479.02
Shares Outstanding (M)6.006.006.00
Fair Value$72.98$76.32$79.78
Upside / Downside-1.38%3.13%7.81%

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