Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.14 - $10.36$8.70
Multi-Stage$12.98 - $14.20$13.58
Blended Fair Value$11.14
Current Price$19.44
Upside-42.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.47%0.00%0.900.900.890.971.221.030.180.070.000.00
YoY Growth--0.51%0.59%-8.14%-20.09%18.92%473.43%172.75%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.03%6.36%8.53%8.96%13.50%48.81%1.25%0.41%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4859.0535.43
Cash Retained (M)32.2232.2232.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.48-59.05-35.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-62.26-26.83-3.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.69483.69483.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.06-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.06-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.14$8.70$10.36
Upside / Downside-63.26%-55.23%-46.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.42467.70463.02458.39453.81449.27462.75
Payout Ratio93.18%92.54%91.91%91.27%90.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.20432.83425.55418.38411.31404.34428.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)394.09398.11402.13
Year 2 PV (M)352.78360.02367.33
Year 3 PV (M)315.80325.56335.53
Year 4 PV (M)282.67294.39306.46
Year 5 PV (M)253.01266.19279.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,681.814,925.605,179.45
Equity Value (M)6,280.166,569.876,870.80
Shares Outstanding (M)483.69483.69483.69
Fair Value$12.98$13.58$14.20
Upside / Downside-33.21%-30.13%-26.93%

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