Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ADT Inc. (ADT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.64 - $10.33$8.35
Multi-Stage$15.36 - $16.93$16.13
Blended Fair Value$12.24
Current Price$8.71
Upside40.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.24%0.00%0.200.140.140.130.120.620.090.820.000.00
YoY Growth--41.75%1.15%9.26%6.42%-80.64%610.94%-89.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.45%2.17%1.92%1.68%1.42%14.31%1.33%10.35%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)640.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)448.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)128.1180.0748.04
Cash Retained (M)448.71448.71448.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-128.11-80.07-48.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)320.59368.64400.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)913.55913.55913.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.64$8.35$10.33
Upside / Downside-23.75%-4.17%18.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)640.56634.15627.81621.53615.32609.16627.44
Payout Ratio29.95%41.96%53.97%65.98%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.85266.09338.83410.09479.89548.25580.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)247.85250.38252.91
Year 2 PV (M)293.96299.99306.08
Year 3 PV (M)331.39341.64352.09
Year 4 PV (M)361.20376.17391.60
Year 5 PV (M)384.36404.38425.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,417.4613,064.0713,737.33
Equity Value (M)14,036.2214,736.6215,465.23
Shares Outstanding (M)913.55913.55913.55
Fair Value$15.36$16.13$16.93
Upside / Downside76.40%85.20%94.36%

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