Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunshine Insurance Group Company Limited (6963.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.31 - $9.20$7.71
Multi-Stage$11.00 - $12.08$11.53
Blended Fair Value$9.62
Current Price$2.96
Upside224.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS20.38%0.00%0.170.180.150.130.030.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.23%18.56%12.89%286.96%-48.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.52%4.47%3.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,681.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,064.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,936.201,210.13726.08
Cash Retained (M)5,617.005,617.005,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,936.20-1,210.13-726.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,680.804,406.884,890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.31$7.71$9.20
Upside / Downside113.08%160.32%210.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,681.009,584.199,488.359,393.469,299.539,206.539,482.73
Payout Ratio41.98%51.58%61.19%70.79%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,064.004,943.845,805.686,649.797,476.438,285.888,771.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,512.094,558.134,604.17
Year 2 PV (M)4,835.924,935.115,035.32
Year 3 PV (M)5,055.295,211.635,371.16
Year 4 PV (M)5,187.365,402.355,623.95
Year 5 PV (M)5,246.905,520.125,804.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)101,690.38106,985.64112,499.22
Equity Value (M)126,527.94132,612.98138,938.43
Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
Fair Value$11.00$11.53$12.08
Upside / Downside271.64%289.51%308.09%

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