Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Topsports International Holdings Limited (6110.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.37 - $6.42$5.36
Multi-Stage$8.19 - $8.98$8.58
Blended Fair Value$6.97
Current Price$3.15
Upside121.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS23.16%0.00%0.340.210.430.250.190.120.090.360.260.00
YoY Growth--61.91%-51.16%72.01%31.58%58.34%29.57%-74.10%37.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.79%4.43%7.11%3.83%1.92%1.49%1.18%4.79%3.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,499.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,666.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)832.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)699.80437.38262.43
Cash Retained (M)832.30832.30832.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-699.80-437.38-262.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.50394.93569.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,201.226,201.226,201.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.13%8.13%8.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.37$5.36$6.42
Upside / Downside38.69%70.03%103.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,499.003,464.013,429.373,395.083,361.133,327.513,427.34
Payout Ratio76.21%78.97%81.73%84.49%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,666.702,735.552,802.752,868.342,932.332,994.763,170.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.13%8.13%8.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,504.412,529.962,555.52
Year 2 PV (M)2,349.122,397.312,445.98
Year 3 PV (M)2,200.962,269.022,338.48
Year 4 PV (M)2,059.942,145.322,233.32
Year 5 PV (M)1,926.042,026.332,130.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,775.4141,846.6144,003.20
Equity Value (M)50,815.8753,214.5555,707.26
Shares Outstanding (M)6,201.226,201.226,201.22
Fair Value$8.19$8.58$8.98
Upside / Downside160.14%172.42%185.18%

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