Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (3868.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.74 - $2.59$2.14
Multi-Stage$3.39 - $3.72$3.55
Blended Fair Value$2.85
Current Price$1.15
Upside147.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.54%0.00%0.040.090.100.140.120.080.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---58.00%-12.28%-24.17%15.46%49.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%6.34%3.99%3.19%2.24%3.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,760.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,061.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)698.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.12220.08132.05
Cash Retained (M)698.70698.70698.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.12-220.08-132.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)346.58478.62566.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,299.848,299.848,299.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.74$2.14$2.59
Upside / Downside50.87%86.12%124.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,760.611,743.011,725.581,708.321,691.241,674.331,724.55
Payout Ratio60.32%66.25%72.19%78.13%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,061.911,154.781,245.681,334.641,421.701,506.891,595.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,062.521,073.361,084.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,054.591,076.221,098.07
Year 3 PV (M)1,039.631,071.791,104.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,018.981,061.211,104.74
Year 5 PV (M)993.751,045.491,099.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,943.5324,138.2525,382.23
Equity Value (M)28,112.9929,466.3230,873.21
Shares Outstanding (M)8,299.848,299.848,299.84
Fair Value$3.39$3.55$3.72
Upside / Downside194.54%208.72%223.46%

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