Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Mainland Headwear Holdings Limited (1100.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.23 - $54.87$21.38
Multi-Stage$7.61 - $8.32$7.96
Blended Fair Value$14.67
Current Price$1.40
Upside947.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.77%17.09%0.090.090.090.060.050.050.050.050.040.03
YoY Growth--0.13%3.96%52.57%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.05%27.04%33.33%50.00%
Dividend Yield--5.58%4.96%4.56%3.68%5.66%5.18%4.46%3.50%2.23%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9721.2312.74
Cash Retained (M)96.9196.9196.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.97-21.23-12.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.9375.6784.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.23$21.38$54.87
Upside / Downside773.24%1,427.37%3,819.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.87180.91192.67205.19218.53232.73239.71
Payout Ratio42.95%52.36%61.77%71.18%80.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.9694.72119.01146.05176.11209.46221.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.7187.5488.36
Year 2 PV (M)99.73101.63103.55
Year 3 PV (M)112.05115.26118.54
Year 4 PV (M)123.68128.44133.33
Year 5 PV (M)134.66141.16147.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,735.142,867.253,004.41
Equity Value (M)3,291.973,441.283,596.11
Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
Fair Value$7.61$7.96$8.32
Upside / Downside443.76%468.42%494.00%

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