Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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High Fashion International Limited (0608.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.67 - $30.21$18.73
Multi-Stage$23.59 - $25.93$24.74
Blended Fair Value$21.74
Current Price$1.31
Upside1,559.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.90%3.30%0.160.160.090.050.030.060.060.060.060.08
YoY Growth--0.00%72.22%80.01%66.67%-50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-25.00%-28.59%
Dividend Yield--8.61%10.33%5.63%3.45%2.07%3.13%3.09%3.16%3.13%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.8423.6514.19
Cash Retained (M)94.4594.4594.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.84-23.65-14.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.6170.8080.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.60305.60305.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$12.67$18.73$30.21
Upside / Downside867.53%1,329.93%2,205.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.19193.54197.99202.55207.21211.97218.33
Payout Ratio50.08%58.06%66.05%74.03%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.74112.37130.77149.95169.94190.78201.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)105.72106.76107.80
Year 2 PV (M)115.73118.03120.35
Year 3 PV (M)124.84128.58132.39
Year 4 PV (M)133.11138.44143.94
Year 5 PV (M)140.57147.65155.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,589.236,920.957,265.89
Equity Value (M)7,209.207,560.417,925.37
Shares Outstanding (M)305.60305.60305.60
Fair Value$23.59$24.74$25.93
Upside / Downside1,700.80%1,788.53%1,879.70%

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