Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Venture Global, Inc. (VG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.92 - $14.08$11.28
Multi-Stage$22.11 - $24.38$23.22
Blended Fair Value$17.25
Current Price$14.19
Upside21.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.060.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---15.24%2,633.33%-14.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.52%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,333.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)562.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,771.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)466.60291.63174.98
Cash Retained (M)1,771.001,771.001,771.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-466.60-291.63-174.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,304.401,479.381,596.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.642,584.642,584.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.570.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.570.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.92$11.28$14.08
Upside / Downside-37.10%-20.48%-0.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,333.002,309.672,286.572,263.712,241.072,218.662,285.22
Payout Ratio24.09%37.27%50.45%63.64%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)562.00860.841,153.661,440.531,721.541,996.792,113.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)804.45812.66820.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,007.461,028.121,049.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,175.561,211.921,249.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,312.861,367.271,423.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,423.011,497.111,574.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,426.4554,104.3456,892.65
Equity Value (M)57,149.7860,021.4263,009.15
Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.642,584.642,584.64
Fair Value$22.11$23.22$24.38
Upside / Downside55.82%63.65%71.80%

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