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Definitive Analysis

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TQM Alpha Public Company Limited (TQM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.18 - $84.86$48.05
Multi-Stage$22.69 - $24.71$23.68
Blended Fair Value$35.86
Current Price$14.70
Upside143.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.81%0.00%1.081.151.341.371.050.480.530.380.680.09
YoY Growth---6.19%-14.25%-2.08%30.34%121.05%-10.17%41.00%-45.00%686.73%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.19%4.30%4.06%3.42%1.71%1.41%3.28%3.26%5.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)781.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)646.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.3597.7258.63
Cash Retained (M)134.96134.96134.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.35-97.72-58.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-21.4037.2376.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)599.95599.95599.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.060.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.060.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Fair Value$31.18$48.05$84.86
Upside / Downside112.10%226.87%477.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)781.77832.40886.32943.721,004.841,069.931,102.02
Payout Ratio82.74%84.19%85.64%87.09%88.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)646.81700.80759.06821.93889.76962.931,019.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)636.88642.91648.95
Year 2 PV (M)626.90638.85650.90
Year 3 PV (M)616.91634.62652.67
Year 4 PV (M)606.91630.25654.26
Year 5 PV (M)596.91625.74655.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,525.5311,034.0311,561.99
Equity Value (M)13,610.0314,206.4114,824.47
Shares Outstanding (M)599.95599.95599.95
Fair Value$22.69$23.68$24.71
Upside / Downside54.32%61.09%68.09%

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