Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sermsang Power Corporation Public Company Limited (SSP-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.54 - $9.01$7.09
Multi-Stage$16.43 - $18.12$17.26
Blended Fair Value$12.17
Current Price$3.46
Upside251.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.46%0.00%0.100.060.210.010.080.160.150.000.000.00
YoY Growth--68.53%-70.90%2,460.39%-89.90%-49.31%5.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.01%0.74%2.41%0.09%0.71%3.51%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)650.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)130.0281.2648.76
Cash Retained (M)399.97399.97399.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-130.02-81.26-48.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)269.96318.71351.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,264.991,264.991,264.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.54$7.09$9.01
Upside / Downside59.98%104.91%160.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)650.09643.59637.16630.79624.48618.23636.78
Payout Ratio38.47%48.78%59.08%69.39%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.12313.94376.46437.70497.68556.41589.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)295.19298.20301.21
Year 2 PV (M)332.83339.66346.55
Year 3 PV (M)363.85375.11386.59
Year 4 PV (M)389.00405.12421.74
Year 5 PV (M)408.92430.22452.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,995.5919,984.7421,014.66
Equity Value (M)20,785.3821,833.0422,923.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,264.991,264.991,264.99
Fair Value$16.43$17.26$18.12
Upside / Downside374.89%398.83%423.74%

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