Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

The Southern Company JR 2017B NT 77 (SOJC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.75 - $269.17$149.02
Multi-Stage$124.04 - $136.03$129.93
Blended Fair Value$139.47
Current Price$22.72
Upside513.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.82%4.70%2.662.742.622.502.422.322.192.071.901.77
YoY Growth---2.67%4.40%4.68%3.43%4.47%5.98%5.43%9.32%7.40%4.98%
Dividend Yield--12.37%11.19%10.74%9.89%9.15%9.42%8.75%8.54%7.56%7.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,459.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,988.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,471.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)891.80557.38334.43
Cash Retained (M)1,471.001,471.001,471.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-891.80-557.38-334.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)579.20913.631,136.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,108.881,108.881,108.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.821.02
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.821.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.223.523.72
WACC / Discount Rate5.97%5.97%5.97%
Growth Rate2.53%3.53%4.53%
Fair Value$95.75$149.02$269.17
Upside / Downside321.45%555.88%1,084.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,459.004,616.184,778.914,947.375,121.765,302.315,461.38
Payout Ratio67.01%71.61%76.21%80.80%85.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,988.003,305.583,641.833,997.684,374.094,772.085,051.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.97%5.97%5.97%
Growth Rate2.53%3.53%4.53%
Year 1 PV (M)3,089.233,119.373,149.50
Year 2 PV (M)3,180.733,243.083,306.04
Year 3 PV (M)3,263.023,359.433,457.72
Year 4 PV (M)3,336.593,468.683,604.66
Year 5 PV (M)3,401.943,571.113,746.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,277.88127,308.94133,577.58
Equity Value (M)137,549.39144,070.61150,842.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,108.881,108.881,108.88
Fair Value$124.04$129.93$136.03
Upside / Downside445.97%471.85%498.73%

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