Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.43 - $112.91$76.66
Multi-Stage$70.09 - $76.88$73.42
Blended Fair Value$75.04
Current Price$40.82
Upside83.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.24%7.85%1.131.121.050.990.500.920.840.770.690.61
YoY Growth--0.70%7.41%5.63%97.71%-45.53%9.22%9.06%11.91%12.78%15.05%
Dividend Yield--4.54%3.36%2.83%2.30%1.20%2.21%1.71%1.62%1.40%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.818.635.18
Cash Retained (M)42.3042.3042.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.81-8.63-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.4933.6737.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.4022.4022.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.271.501.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.271.501.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$54.43$76.66$112.91
Upside / Downside33.33%87.80%176.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.0571.2873.5975.9778.4380.9783.40
Payout Ratio38.74%48.99%59.24%69.49%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7534.9243.5952.7962.5472.8777.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)32.3632.6732.99
Year 2 PV (M)37.4338.1738.91
Year 3 PV (M)42.0143.2544.52
Year 4 PV (M)46.1247.9549.83
Year 5 PV (M)49.7952.2854.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,362.431,430.381,501.01
Equity Value (M)1,570.141,644.701,722.13
Shares Outstanding (M)22.4022.4022.40
Fair Value$70.09$73.42$76.88
Upside / Downside71.72%79.87%88.34%

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