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Definitive Analysis

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Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.68 - $18.07$15.33
Multi-Stage$20.95 - $22.92$21.91
Blended Fair Value$18.62
Current Price$25.48
Upside-26.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.840.620.430.380.430.270.210.250.00
YoY Growth---100.00%35.96%43.14%14.00%-10.60%54.87%30.63%-15.10%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.32%2.44%1.71%1.50%1.68%1.08%0.83%0.98%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)370.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.1046.3127.79
Cash Retained (M)113.90113.90113.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.10-46.31-27.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.8067.5986.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)197.36197.36197.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.340.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.340.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.68$15.33$18.07
Upside / Downside-50.25%-39.85%-29.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)370.50366.80363.13359.50355.90352.34362.91
Payout Ratio69.26%73.41%77.55%81.70%85.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.60269.25281.62293.72305.55317.11335.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)243.16245.64248.13
Year 2 PV (M)229.69234.40239.16
Year 3 PV (M)216.35223.04229.87
Year 4 PV (M)203.25211.68220.36
Year 5 PV (M)190.50200.42210.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,050.803,209.663,375.08
Equity Value (M)4,133.764,324.854,523.34
Shares Outstanding (M)197.36197.36197.36
Fair Value$20.95$21.91$22.92
Upside / Downside-17.80%-14.00%-10.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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