Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Metcash Limited (MTS.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.07 - $99.01$46.68
Multi-Stage$12.31 - $13.46$12.87
Blended Fair Value$29.78
Current Price$3.81
Upside681.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.16%11.51%0.150.140.200.180.140.110.120.100.000.01
YoY Growth--13.37%-32.18%9.42%33.85%25.47%-8.23%22.32%7,421.43%-75.86%-89.68%
Dividend Yield--4.78%3.45%5.14%3.82%3.85%4.38%4.14%2.70%0.06%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)346.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)194.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3467.7140.63
Cash Retained (M)194.90194.90194.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.34-67.71-40.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.56127.19154.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,084.561,084.561,084.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Fair Value$21.07$46.68$99.01
Upside / Downside453.14%1,125.31%2,498.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.70575.05610.46648.04687.94730.29752.20
Payout Ratio64.02%69.22%74.41%79.61%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)346.80398.03454.26515.89583.40657.27695.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)367.97371.47374.97
Year 2 PV (M)388.23395.65403.14
Year 3 PV (M)407.61419.35431.31
Year 4 PV (M)426.14442.58459.49
Year 5 PV (M)443.83465.34487.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,319.8711,868.4412,438.08
Equity Value (M)13,353.6513,962.8314,594.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,084.561,084.561,084.56
Fair Value$12.31$12.87$13.46
Upside / Downside223.16%237.91%253.20%

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