Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$775.38 - $2,260.54$2,117.83
Multi-Stage$1,095.76 - $1,205.50$1,149.58
Blended Fair Value$1,633.71
Current Price$292.17
Upside459.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.34%4.24%6.786.315.815.465.234.994.544.304.264.50
YoY Growth--7.44%8.75%6.37%4.42%4.77%10.01%5.40%1.01%-5.33%0.44%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.25%2.08%2.21%2.33%3.02%2.41%2.75%3.29%3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,415.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,354.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,683.001,051.88631.13
Cash Retained (M)3,354.003,354.003,354.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,683.00-1,051.88-631.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,671.002,302.132,722.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.85717.85717.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.333.213.79
LTM Dividend per Share7.057.057.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.333.213.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3810.2610.84
WACC / Discount Rate3.47%3.47%3.47%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$775.38$2,117.83$2,260.54
Upside / Downside165.39%624.86%673.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,415.008,687.358,968.529,258.799,558.459,867.8210,163.85
Payout Ratio60.14%66.11%72.09%78.06%84.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,061.005,743.566,465.017,227.148,031.838,881.049,401.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.47%3.47%3.47%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)5,497.015,550.785,604.55
Year 2 PV (M)5,921.896,038.306,155.85
Year 3 PV (M)6,335.826,523.566,714.97
Year 4 PV (M)6,739.017,006.577,282.01
Year 5 PV (M)7,131.667,487.337,857.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)754,965.63792,617.52831,756.88
Equity Value (M)786,591.02825,224.07865,371.32
Shares Outstanding (M)717.85717.85717.85
Fair Value$1,095.76$1,149.58$1,205.50
Upside / Downside275.04%293.46%312.60%

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