Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Merchants Bancorp (MBINO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$711.33 - $1,067.83$1,000.72
Multi-Stage$174.97 - $191.66$183.16
Blended Fair Value$591.94
Current Price$31.80
Upside1,761.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.29%0.00%1.111.060.830.680.520.380.220.170.140.09
YoY Growth--5.49%27.42%21.87%31.95%37.19%68.89%28.50%27.73%47.42%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.01%2.50%3.18%2.48%1.84%3.71%1.54%1.21%1.21%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)246.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.3230.8218.49
Cash Retained (M)187.18187.18187.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.32-30.82-18.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.86156.35168.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.9245.9245.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.003.403.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.003.403.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.304.704.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$711.33$1,000.72$1,067.83
Upside / Downside2,136.88%3,046.91%3,257.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)246.59262.62279.69297.86317.23337.85347.98
Payout Ratio24.09%37.27%50.46%63.64%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.4197.89141.12189.55243.69304.06321.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.3692.2393.09
Year 2 PV (M)122.93125.27127.63
Year 3 PV (M)154.11158.54163.04
Year 4 PV (M)184.92192.03199.34
Year 5 PV (M)215.35225.75236.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,266.917,617.917,982.33
Equity Value (M)8,035.588,411.728,802.00
Shares Outstanding (M)45.9245.9245.92
Fair Value$174.97$183.16$191.66
Upside / Downside450.23%475.98%502.71%

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