Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Haad Thip Public Company Limited (HTC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.82 - $115.62$60.28
Multi-Stage$26.19 - $28.55$27.35
Blended Fair Value$43.81
Current Price$14.90
Upside194.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.82%18.03%1.040.970.760.980.880.600.500.360.270.15
YoY Growth--7.78%27.82%-22.57%10.79%47.95%20.00%36.99%32.73%83.33%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--6.38%5.68%4.51%5.95%4.46%6.92%6.89%2.68%3.43%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)585.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)409.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.1773.2343.94
Cash Retained (M)175.89175.89175.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.17-73.23-43.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.72102.66131.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)401.78401.78401.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.82$60.28$115.62
Upside / Downside153.82%304.57%675.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)585.85623.93664.48707.67753.67802.66826.74
Payout Ratio69.98%73.98%77.99%81.99%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)409.96461.59518.20580.23648.12722.39764.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)420.45424.43428.42
Year 2 PV (M)429.95438.14446.40
Year 3 PV (M)438.50451.09463.91
Year 4 PV (M)446.16463.31480.96
Year 5 PV (M)452.96474.84497.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,333.368,735.869,153.77
Equity Value (M)10,521.3710,987.6711,471.02
Shares Outstanding (M)401.78401.78401.78
Fair Value$26.19$27.35$28.55
Upside / Downside75.75%83.54%91.62%

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